This week in the stock market has been marked by notable events and various performance across various asset classes. Equity markets have held onto most of their prior week gains, and thus are maintaining their bullish momentum. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit nearly $70,000 earlier today.
The earnings season has brought positive surprises, including Nvidia’s (NVDA) stellar performance and parabolic run. This growth is largely driven by a narrow group of mega-cap tech companies which consists of “The Magnificent 7”, but the positive results are beginning to spread more broadly across the market.
On the bond side, investment-grade bond prices declined in February, influenced by upside surprises in consumer and producer prices, along with a shift in rate-cut expectations. The Federal Reserve is not expected to rush into policy easing, and this adjustment presents another opportunity for investors to consider extending the duration of their fixed-income portfolios.
Market concentration has also been a point of discussion, with the “Magnificent 7″ stocks driving much of the market’s performance. However, a potential broadening of the market rally is beginning to take shape, and is further anticipated by many investors, as they look towards mid- and small-cap stocks, which could benefit from a Fed pivot to rate cuts, along with overall improvements in economic indicators.
The bull market gains suggest further upside potential for equities and “risk on” assets such as Bitcoin, which has been supported by an improved economic, earnings, and inflation outlook.
However, the pace of gains may slow, and increased volatility is always a consideration. Historical analysis of past bull markets suggests that while the current market rally has been strong, things do not always continue this way.
From a global perspective, market data indicates mixed movements across major indexes. The S&P 500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones experienced marginal declines on the week, but this is following a significant rally to all-time highs for all of the indexes. See the charts for the three indexes below:
The commodities market, on the other hand, saw gold prices continuing their rally, whereas Brent crude oil faced a slight decline, and copper was up over 1% on the week.
Investors are closely monitoring the economic data and Federal Reserve’s next moves, especially in light of the recent job market data, which supports the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The evolving economic landscape and the Fed’s policy decisions will continue to play crucial roles in shaping market trends, along with potential investment strategies in the coming weeks.
